The human population of Earth could collapse and be cut in half in just 40 years if the conditions on the planet change, according to a chilling new doomsday study.
The research – published in Chaos, Solitons & Fractals – reached its grim prediction after analyzing 12,000 years of human population growth — and suggested that humanity’s growth over the last 50 years could be entirely wiped out by 2064.
Alessio Zaccone, a physicist at the University of Milan warned that raging pandemics, war, resource shortages, plunging birthrates and climate change could destabilize humanity as we know it, causing the global population of 8.3 billion to plunge rapidly.
The study – published in Chaos, Solitons & Fractals – reached its grim prediction after analyzing 12,000 years of human population growth. ScienceDirectWhile researchers stressed the finding is only an “illustrative mathematical scenario,” they cautioned that sudden global shocks can quickly send population trends spiraling.
The global population has doubled since 1976, and Zaccone suggested it could be cut in half even more quickly.
“The most provocative part of our paper explores hypothetical future scenarios,” Zaccon said of the study, explaining that it modeled how major environmental crises could impose a “severe carrying-capacity limit” on Earth.
“Under a deliberately conservative worst-case assumption that Earth’s sustainable carrying capacity suddenly dropped to around two billion people, our model predicts a rapid global population decline, with humanity potentially halving by around the year 2064.”
Zaccone, who penned the study with late colleague Kostya Trachenko, said the pair tested their equation against population growth patterns spanning from the Neolithic era to modern times.
The model mirrored the rapid industrial-era boom and the slower “stretched exponential” growth pattern seen since about 1970, according to the research.
Experts warned that global warming, raging pandemics, conflict, resource shortages, and plunging birth rates could rapidly destabilize humanity’s future over the next four decades Dmytro – stock.adobe.com
If environmental chaos intensifies, the world’s 8.3 billion people could be potentially slashed in half by 2064. ScienceDirect
The study tested an equation against population growth patterns spanning from the Neolithic era to modern times. ScienceDirectResearchers concluded that humanity’s current population path remains relatively stable – for now – and does not signal an imminent collapse.
“In the article we stress that this is not a forecast, but rather an illustrative mathematical scenario intended to show how sensitive population dynamics may be to abrupt environmental or societal changes,” Zaccone said.
“We emphasize that the current trajectory remains relatively stable and does not imply imminent collapse.”
Researchers stressed the finding is only an “illustrative mathematical scenario.” Getty ImagesThe model also takes a fresh look at the infamous 1969 “doomsday” theory, which suggested humanity’s population could spiral uncontrollably toward mathematical infinity before ending in global collapse on Friday, Nov. 13, 2026.
“Humanity avoided that trajectory as fertility rates declined globally, but our new study argues that the underlying mathematics of runaway growth can still reappear under certain conditions,” Zaccone said.
“In our baseline analysis, the current global trend does not produce a catastrophic singularity like the one predicted.”
